Final Election Predictions

JeffC's picture

The national polls have tightened since my last predictions but the state races seem much the same.

Palin's in West Virginia?

On Oct. 11 I had:

Obama 273
CA (55), CO (9), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), HI (4), IA (7), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (4), MI (17), MN (10), NH (4), NJ (15), NM (5), NY (31), OH (20), OR (7), RI (4), VT (3), WA (11), WI (10)

McCain 162
AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), AZ (10), GA (15), ID (4), KS (6), KY (8), LA (9), MS (6), MT (3), ND (3), NE (4), OK (7), SC (8), SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), WV (5), WY (3)

The Battle Ground States:

FL (27), IN (11), MO (11), NC (15), NE(1 – Omaha), NV (5), OH (20), VA (13)
contained 102 Electoral Collage votes.

McCain will probably win the Omaha, NE electoral vote bringing his EC vote to 163.

Obama seems to have sealed the deal in Virginia (13) and Nevada (5) bringing his EC vote to 291.

Florida and Ohio are the most contentious battleground states with Ohio moving steadily toward Obama. historical Republican voter fraud and voter suppression make Ohio hard to call however it will be extremely hard for the Republicans to steal or suppress more than 5% even on a good day for them and Obama's lead exceeds that.

Ohio (20) goes to Obama bringing his EC votes to 311.

Of the remaining states, I'm giving Obama Florida (27) based on Obama's ground game and Missouri (11) because of good friends working for Obama there, with McCain taking Indiana (11) and North Carolina (15) both of which will be squeakers.

Final prediction: Obama (349), McCain (189)

The Democrats will almost surely pick up six seats:

In Colorado Democrat Mark Udall (Morris "Mo" Udall's son) has a 10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer.

In New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen has a substantial lead over Republican John Sununu.

In Virginia Mark Warner has a insurmountable 30 point lead over Republican James S. Gilmore.

In New Mexico Democrat Tom Udall (Stewart Udall's son) has a sizable lead over Republican Steve Pearce

In Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley will probably beat Republican Gordon Smith. Smith has run so many ads tying himself to Obama that Obama had to tape an ad endorsing Merkley.

In Alaska, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage will be the new Senator. Alaska's famously corrupt Republican Senator Ted Stevens may eke out an election win in spite of being convicted of seven felonies but even if he does in Alaska Governor Palin will not be able to appoint a successor. The Republicans will have to find a sacrificial lamb for a special election that the hugely popular Begich will win.

Other Senate races to watch include:

North Carolina which is leaning toward Democratic Kay Hagan. Republican Elizabeth Dole wins for running the nastiest campaign in the country with her ads alleging that Hagan, an elder in the First Presbyterian Church, is an atheist. Hagan has sued to have the ads quashed to no avail. Dole now moves to the head of the line as the country's sleaziest politician (replacing Saxby Chambliss with his ads comparing Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden).

In Minnesota Democratic Al Franken seems to slightly trail Republican Norm Coleman. However the race is hugely volatile with neither major candidate a certainty. Independent Dean Barkley's 15% will probably collapse and his defectors will decide the race. This might favor Franken since they are already not supporting the incumbent Coleman and may be looking for a new face.

In Georgia Jim Martin is a couple of points behind Saxby Chambliss with Libertarian Allen Buckley showing 3-5% support. There is a possibility that Obama's GOTV strength may tip the vote to Martin or that, with Buckley in the race, neither candidate wins a majority. A runoff may favor Martin given the money the Democrats would pour into the race, a traditionally pitifully low turnout in Georgia runoff races and the possibility of an appearance by Obama rallying Democrats for Martin.

Alas, in Kentucky Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems likely to retain his seat beating Democrat Bruce Lunsford.

JeffC's blog | login to post comments

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
carbonunit52's picture
Submitted by carbonunit52 on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 9:44am.

I voted early on the machine, and I had an uneasy feeling about it, with no paper trail, no confirmation number, nothing but a need to trust the integrity of the system that no fraud will be perpetrated. Since you have monitored elections all over the globe, is my unease unfounded or a cause for concern?

"I can't wait until tomorrow, because I get more lovable every day."

Submitted by boo boo on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 11:40pm.

Voting, I too thought as I was waiting on the voting card to pop back out, how easy it would be, for some kind of proof to pop out as well, with a stamp on it of I voted, who I voted for, with time and date on a piece of paper/card. My name doesn't have to be on it but maybe a private #, but at least a time and date of voting would at least show some proof. Someone came up with the idea of that voting machine, it seems simple to be able to pop out a receipt/proof too, along with the voting card. Maybe one of these days, wishing and hoping.

JeffC's picture
Submitted by JeffC on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 11:00am.

Well founded. The potential for fraud is huge.

There are several criteria for an election to be monitored by our groups. Having no paper trail would disqualify the US. Other disqualifying items would be no consistent manner of voting and no central election commission to resolve vote disputes. There are other technical criteria which the US elections don't meet also.

In the US we resolve all of these issues using lawyers.

sniffles5's picture
Submitted by sniffles5 on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 11:05am.

But do not fear, here in Fayette County, Marilyn Watts and James Studdard on the Board of Elections will endeavor to make sure that every single white vote is counted!

The Wedge's picture
Submitted by The Wedge on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 11:30am.

What a snarky way of claiming that these two people (whom I do not know, even by reputation) are not only racist, but criminal. Is this founded by a reasonable and verifiable record, or is it merely a slanderous or misleading statement? Can someone use that same criteria to claim criminal behaviour conducted by you? Theft, hate crimes, vandalism, or crimes of deviancy?

Main Stream's picture
Submitted by Main Stream on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 12:11pm.

The sarcasm in Sniffles' post rings true for many of us in Fayette County.

It is unclear to many voters why Chairman Marilyn Watts and Attorney David Studdard, both who were appointed by Fayette County Commissioners (all Republican), refused to change the manner in which on-site poll workers are selected. Like many voters, I was under the assumption that poll workers should constitute a 50/50 ratio, half Repub and half Democrat. That's why I volunteered to be a poll worker several months ago, but I was turned down because Marilyn Watts and David Studdard had already hand picked their managers (Republican) and subsequently the managers hand-picked their workers. If I am incorrect about this, then someone please correct me. However, I received a letter last month from our Democratic Representative, to the Fayette County Elections Board, that read:

"Chairman Marilyn Watts and Attorney David Studdard refused to change the manner in which poll workers have been selected. For many years, the Board has appointed precinct managers and then allowed the precinct managers to choose their own staff, subject to their approval. This has resulted in the vast majority of poll workers to be people who consistently vote in Republican primaries...the present system is decidedly partisan and even a virtual patronage system, often involving nepotism where several members of the same family work in the same precinct."

This is not to say that these poll workers are devious in any way and will inhibit a fair election, however, the current process of only enlisting Republican managers and, therefore, Republican poll workers presents the look of partisan politics on the local level.

Until the system changes, in how we select election managers and poll workers, the partisan politics and nepotism that continues through Marilyn Watts and David Studdard will only perpetuate the well intentioned snarky comments and sarcasm from people like sniffles and the voting public.

hutch866's picture
Submitted by hutch866 on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 4:11pm.

Just curious here, do you think half the poll workers in Clayton County are Republicans?

I yam what I yam....Popeye

Main Stream's picture
Submitted by Main Stream on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 5:26pm.

"Just curious here, do you think half the poll workers in Clayton County are Republicans?"

Don't know, hutch, but I would hope that all counties would be open to a bipartisan poll staff. Only in a perfect world, I suppose.

btw - Happy Birthday!!! Smiling What are you, 29???

hutch866's picture
Submitted by hutch866 on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 8:24pm.

Yeah, 29, I just grayed up early, I think the logistics of finding equal numbers of certain parties who are willing to serve can be problematic, depending on the demographics of the parties. Thank you for the happy birthday.

I yam what I yam....Popeye

The Wedge's picture
Submitted by The Wedge on Sat, 11/01/2008 - 12:36pm.

Okay, so the manner in which polls are staffed are the same as in Cobb, Fulton, Clayton, and many other one-party, or majority party rule areas. I think that it is easy to throw allegations of racism around, but would you be comfortable tarring people with the pedophilia brush? In some circles, those are equal tarrings. Prove that people are doing the wrong thing, an illegal thing. Then maybe I will not call you on it.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.