-->
Search the ArchivesNavigationContact InformationThe Citizen Newspapers For Advertising Information Email us your news! For technical difficulties |
Final Election PredictionsThe national polls have tightened since my last predictions but the state races seem much the same. On Oct. 11 I had: Obama 273 McCain 162 The Battle Ground States: FL (27), IN (11), MO (11), NC (15), NE(1 – Omaha), NV (5), OH (20), VA (13) McCain will probably win the Omaha, NE electoral vote bringing his EC vote to 163. Obama seems to have sealed the deal in Virginia (13) and Nevada (5) bringing his EC vote to 291. Florida and Ohio are the most contentious battleground states with Ohio moving steadily toward Obama. historical Republican voter fraud and voter suppression make Ohio hard to call however it will be extremely hard for the Republicans to steal or suppress more than 5% even on a good day for them and Obama's lead exceeds that. Ohio (20) goes to Obama bringing his EC votes to 311. Of the remaining states, I'm giving Obama Florida (27) based on Obama's ground game and Missouri (11) because of good friends working for Obama there, with McCain taking Indiana (11) and North Carolina (15) both of which will be squeakers. Final prediction: Obama (349), McCain (189) The Democrats will almost surely pick up six seats: In Colorado Democrat Mark Udall (Morris "Mo" Udall's son) has a 10 point lead over Republican Bob Schaffer. In New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen has a substantial lead over Republican John Sununu. In Virginia Mark Warner has a insurmountable 30 point lead over Republican James S. Gilmore. In New Mexico Democrat Tom Udall (Stewart Udall's son) has a sizable lead over Republican Steve Pearce In Oregon Democrat Jeff Merkley will probably beat Republican Gordon Smith. Smith has run so many ads tying himself to Obama that Obama had to tape an ad endorsing Merkley. In Alaska, Mayor Mark Begich of Anchorage will be the new Senator. Alaska's famously corrupt Republican Senator Ted Stevens may eke out an election win in spite of being convicted of seven felonies but even if he does in Alaska Governor Palin will not be able to appoint a successor. The Republicans will have to find a sacrificial lamb for a special election that the hugely popular Begich will win. Other Senate races to watch include: North Carolina which is leaning toward Democratic Kay Hagan. Republican Elizabeth Dole wins for running the nastiest campaign in the country with her ads alleging that Hagan, an elder in the First Presbyterian Church, is an atheist. Hagan has sued to have the ads quashed to no avail. Dole now moves to the head of the line as the country's sleaziest politician (replacing Saxby Chambliss with his ads comparing Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden). In Minnesota Democratic Al Franken seems to slightly trail Republican Norm Coleman. However the race is hugely volatile with neither major candidate a certainty. Independent Dean Barkley's 15% will probably collapse and his defectors will decide the race. This might favor Franken since they are already not supporting the incumbent Coleman and may be looking for a new face. In Georgia Jim Martin is a couple of points behind Saxby Chambliss with Libertarian Allen Buckley showing 3-5% support. There is a possibility that Obama's GOTV strength may tip the vote to Martin or that, with Buckley in the race, neither candidate wins a majority. A runoff may favor Martin given the money the Democrats would pour into the race, a traditionally pitifully low turnout in Georgia runoff races and the possibility of an appearance by Obama rallying Democrats for Martin. Alas, in Kentucky Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems likely to retain his seat beating Democrat Bruce Lunsford. JeffC's blog | login to post comments |