The interesting thing about statistics is how they only tell part of the story. While the overall capacity figures may be true, the real truth of the matter is that the new schools - because of location - may not help the issue. Here are a couple examples. Sandy Creek High School, in Tyrone, has always been under capacity. Several elementary schools are in the same situation. Bennett's Mill Middle School is open for the second year and only has a 47% capacity. While no one would argue that the school is a wonderful facility, has great staff and a nice atomosphere, the facts are clear. The parents told the school board that it was too early to open the school. The parents were ignored. The district is pulling kids from all through the county. The kids who graduate from BMMS attend 4 different high schools. Enough said.

FCHS was built for 1800-1900 students, but last year was at 1400 and this year at 1500. Stop giving special permissions to out of district students at other schools and keep the numbers as they should be. If Johnny wants to play football at Whitewater then move to Whitewater. Just because students are seniors and they move out of county, they should not be allowed to stay in Fayette County schools. As said before, when you have teachers only teaching 2-3 classes a day at fulltime pay, money is being wasted. When there are parapros sitting in empty classrooms with no students, money is being wasted. No business can be ran this way and NOT go bankrupt. Readjustments can be made so jobs can be saved and not leave the students in the wasteland. As far as building schools, "if you build them, they will come." Lets wait a few years and see if they come first.

There has been a lot of discussion regarding capacity of our schools and whether or not the FCBOE should build River’s elementary. While this project is covered by construction bonds that we voted to approve, some rightfully question the timing of the project which is reasonable. I do a lot of strategic planning and forecasting in my work life and it truly is more of an art than a science.
First I think it is important to think about context. We have added three schools Inman, Crabapple, Bennett’s Mill) with the current bond issue and repurposed one (East Fayette). All told in the five year period (FY 2004 – 2009) we have had a net change of +958 slots and +758 students. All of this is based on information from the latest school financial report (2007) and a “warm bodies report” I found in the public record. Here is a breakdown of where Fayette County was in 2004 v. 2009 by type of school. You can see a by school version of this on our website under “get the facts”. Remember that this was built on public information and may vary slightly based on measurement of students.
2004 2009
Elementary 84% 87%
Middle 98 80
High 91 101
System 89.7% 89.4%
It is important to note that the numbers above are based on “Fayette capacity” which is approximately 95% of the state allowed capacity. This advantage was built into the purchase price of your home if you bought within the past years and continues to add value to your home value today. If the student populations were to remain flat next year and the capacity of Rivers was added, our system would be at 87% capacity and our elementary schools at 83%.
The big question is when will we need more capacity in our schools and how will we use the capacity we have. First we have to determine what we believe the community will look like in 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10yrs and out until 2030. The Atlanta regional commission estimates the student population to be near 35,000 in 2030. We currently have slots for approximately 25,000 at Fayette standard. I do not believe the estimate of the ARC, but one problem for all of us is that there is no reliable way to estimate what the population will look like.
However, we can decide on how we want to run our schools. Do we believe constant rebalancing of the schools is necessary to balance out any excess capacity? Imagine annual redistricting to readjust based on that year’s student population. Factories can shift production when there is excess capacity; however, do we want to ignore our strategy of neighborhood schools for one where “operational efficiency” comes before our children? Personally I do not.
When we look at a snapshot of today’s Fayette County we see that the student population leveled out this year, and the overall economy has slowed. If you follow the building statistics, you will see that the National Association of Home Builders has been forecasting a recovery in the next 6 months for the past two years. I do not think we can use that as our guide. However, we know families with children move into our community all the time without new construction. They come for our great schools and our wonderful communities. I do not expect that to change, especially with families from Sany and Northwest on the way.
The only question is where we want our capacity and “load factor” to be. When you look over the past five years, we have maintained a very steady load which has supported our strategy. However, when we opened the Starr’s Mill complex it was over capacity there is a question on whether it is better to be reactive or proactive. Do we anticipate demand or react to overcrowding? We have to remember that we need to vote for bonds to build so delay may be costly. Many businesses will continue to build for the future in a downturn so that they can be ready for the next upswing in demand.
Some argue that building River’s now saves money for the future as it locks in lower construction costs. Given the rise in most commodities such as metals, lumbers, concrete, and fuel, I believe it is a reasonable strategy although not the best business case. We also have to consider that the lead time on constructing a new school is 18 to 24 months. Again the question comes down to timing.
When River’s Elementary opens, 14 trailers full of children will get to go into a school building. The remainder of Burch will be able to enjoy class sizes similar to schools around Fayette County. Children will also come from Cleveland, Hood, and North Fayette. The position of this school will allow community schools to cover smaller areas.
As a matter of disclosure, I live in Centennial and have always expected that Centennial Elem would be built and my son would go there. Unless we vote even more bonds, that expectation will not be met. When I first heard this I was not pleased, but when I went to Burch and saw the conditions I understand better. When I look at the map of schools I can see the strategy for not only today but tomorrow. There appears to be a sustainable strategy that will yield a dividend on our investment into the future. We are posting a copy of the school map with the approximate position of River’s elementary on our website.
Sorry for the length (this is the short version). This is a question that challenges many businesses every day. Some choose to invest for the future, some choose to hold position. Either way this decision is not affected by the E-SPLOST which will be used for other things. Remember I am not a FCBOE member or employee, just a neighbor who likes data and is working towards a factual discussion regarding the E-SPLOST initiative.

Neil Sullivan
Co-Chair Fayette Citizens for Children
www.yesfayetteESPLOST.org