The battleground states seem to be continuing their trend away from McCain and toward Obama. However, McCain is showing renewed strength in Ohio where Obama began flat lining his upward trend and is now trending ever so slightly downward. Obama peaked in the Ohio polls last week up 3.8 over McCain and has now dropped to being up 3.5. statistically insignificant but trending down nevertheless.

Otherwise, movement in the early battle ground states of FL (27), IN (11), MO (11), NC (15), NE(1 – Omaha) NH (4), NV (5), OH (20), PA (21), VA (13), WI (10) seem to be moving in O's direction.

Obama seems to have closed the deal in Pennsylvania (+13.8) and New Hampshire (+10.4) and Wisconsin seems increasingly out of reach for McCain with Obama ahead 8.8 points. If these polls are correct Obama has clinched with 273 EVs. (Earlier I had probably prematurely given Obama NM, however it seems that will turn out correct with NM now showing Obama +7.3)

McCain leads fairly decisively in AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), AZ (10), GA (15), ID (4), KS (6), KY (8), LA (9), MS (6), MT (3), ND (3), NE (4), OK (7), SC (8), SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), WV (5), WY (3) giving him 162 EVs, unchanged from Mid-September and needing 108 more to win.

The battle ground states with 103 EVs now seem to be:
FL (27), Obama +3.8
IN (11), McCain +3.8
MO (11), McCain +0.4
NC (15), Obama +1.8
NE(1) - (the Congressional district including Omaha)
NV (5), Obama +3
OH (20), Obama +3.5
VA (13) Obama +5.1

McCain must win all of these states and pick up one more from Obama, a daunting task with 3 ½ weeks to go and the campaign showing such weakness that Palin is campaigning in WV (which I long ago assigned to McCain because after all it is WV a heavily Republican state).

Obama's growing strength is to a large extent out of his control. Overwhelmingly, by more than 4:1 voters are blaming the R's for the financial crisis which rebounds to Obama support.

McCain's need to change the game is reflected in the near hysterical demand among some of his more fringe supporters to go after Ayers and Wright Stoked by Rush's daily radio mocking of McCain for wanting to run an
“honorable” (which Rush drags out into a five second word) campaign, Hannity's near apocalyptic denunciation of the campaign for not hitting the Ayers connection hard enough, and Palin's equating Obama with terrorist; the McCain and Palin rallies are starting to resemble uncontrollable mobs. McCain's internal polling as well as public national polls show that these displays, bordering on neo-fascists hate fests, are driving uncommitteds and independents increasingly toward Obama. News stories highlighting the mob scenes are detracting from McCain's message completely overshadowing his recent call for allowing retirees to suspend mandatory withdrawals from their 401 K's, a potent message in Florida and other states if McCain can get it aired.

Nevertheless, McCain has promised to attack Obama on the Ayers connection vigorously during the next debate in spite of the fact that, in the face of the financial crisis, people overwhelmingly do not care. Nor do they care about Palin's secessionist husbands ties with the AIP nor McCain's previous Keating Five scandal.

Current prediction: Obama 333, McCain 205.

Palin did great. So did Joe. Neither had a serious gaffe and both put out the party line. Tie goes to Obama because McCain needed a game changer while all Obama needs is to keep on keeping on. However Palin greatly exceeded expectations and I would expect that all of the comments from republicans and their media friends saying that she should withdraw will have ended. The McCain campaign should have regained confidence in her and she will now be out doing local media and republican sycophantic talk radio.

Predictions

As of Sept 28, I had Obama 248, McCain 97 with 117 undecided.

Electoral College Predictions Sept 28

The Battle Ground States were:
FL (27), IN (11), MO (11), NC (15), NE(1 – Omaha) NH (4), NV (5), OH (20), PA (21), VA (13), WI (10)

Wisconsin still goes to Obama but he has been unable to close the deal. Same with McCain in Missouri.

McCain’s pulling out of Michigan reflects how the fiscal crisis and McCain’s erratic response has undermined his campaign. Interestingly, he has reallocated his resources to Ohio and Indiana. Last weeks polling showed Pennsylvania at Obama +12 which is ridiculous. Obama’s internal polling showed a much more reasonable 6-7%. However the PA trend is against McCain and his internal polling must show it as lost otherwise he would be moving his Michigan staff there instead of moving all of them into Ohio.

I surmised a couple of days ago that: “He needs to be in Florida without which he cannot win, and either Pennsylvania or Ohio, pick one and concentrate on it. At this point Ohio seems the better bet with Ohio media leaking into southern Penn.”

More political analysis Oct. 1

Apparently the McCain camp agrees and they too have picked Ohio.

Obama picks up Pennsylvania with 21 EC votes which gives him 269.

Current prediction Obama 320, McCain 218.

New polling averages from Real Clear Politics show Obama closing on McCain in Florida with McCain leading by just 0.8%.

Terrible news for McCain coming after Obama's announcement that he is allocating $39 million to Florida.

Don't forget what happened to McCain in SC last time he ran!

Don't forget what happened to Douglas in California when Nixon ran against her! (He accused her of being a Communist, bad news then, shortly before the election).

There are people who will get right desperate soon!

However, it is likely to be closer than you predict, all things staying the same. I can't buy a "blow-out in poplar votes and close in electoral!