Local Real Estate: How Bad Is It, Really?

muddle's picture

I anticipate listing my home next year with an actual move some time before the end of summer.

I already know that things look pretty bleak.
But I wonder if anyone in the know here can offer me some sort of forecast. What should I expect?

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Submitted by Tombo100 on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 12:44pm.

Check with the Secretary of States office, but the way to do this is to find a charity to work with. Have it in the contract that they get whatever is sold in excess of the target amount that your parents are putting up.

If you do it for yourself it will never work, but if you do it for charity it usually passes legal approval.

More here: http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2008/09/25/selling-your-home-with-a-raffle/

Submitted by HankyPanky on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 12:03pm.

There are no buyers. You will have to discount the property too much. If the property is paid off, you could owner finance it with 5% down. Closing costs would only be attorneys fees, which should not be more than $300 because of less paper work. Because of the risk you could get 7% interest. For a 20 year mortgage 7% is $7.76 per 1000; 25 yrs $7.07; 30 yrs $6.66. A $200,000 mortgage for 20 years would pay you 200 x $7.76 = $1552 per month = $558,720. A profit of $358,720. Back in the 1970’s and 80’s wrap around financing was used for those who had mortgages. Example: Current mortgage $150,000. Sales price $200,000 less 5% down ($10,000) = $190,000 for wrap around mortgage. Finance $190,000 as shown above. All owner financing could have 3-5 year calls, whereby in 3-5 years the buyer would have to refinance and pay off your mortgage or you could foreclose. In Georgia foreclosure is easy, in Florida and some other states its more difficult. In any case of owner financing you should have the buyer pay monthly insurance and taxes to you and you pay both. The buyer must show you a 1 year paid insurance policy at closing. I did dozens of these mortgages in the 70’s & 80’s, and never lost a cent or had to foreclose. Every single buyer paid the mortgage in full in 5-10 years by refinancing or selling the home. The down payment is the key. Otherwise all they’re doing is renting and can walk away. That’s how our stupid financial institutions got into today’s mess.

Main Stream's picture
Submitted by Main Stream on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 10:31am.

It depends on what your goal is.

Do you plan on buying when you move to your new locale? Then you'll most likely need to sell your current home. However, you could actually rent your F'vlle. home out for a year, rent something in your new location, and then sell your home in 2010 and put the proceeds towards your home purchase in your new location. You'll most likely take a beating if you sell your home in 2009, even if you have put a ton of improvements in the place over the years. The foreclosures in your neighborhood, and Fayette county, have brought your home value down and everyone is looking for a deal now and buyers are turning their noses up at homes that are realistically priced for the market we had 1-2 years ago. My seller clients have had to drastically reduce their prices in 2008, or have decided to just take their home off the market completely. But for those that HAVE to move (divorce, relocation) they have no chance and so the price gets lowered to attract buyers.

There are markets that are still strong, although the homes are staying on the market longer. Decatur, Midtown, Inman Park, VA Highland, etc. are areas that are still selling, but you are a long way from those neighborhoods. If you are anticipating a move in the summer, you should have your home listed now because it will most likely take 6-9 months for it to sell, if it does at all. You could always list your home with a company for a $500 fee that will just list it in the MLS (both the FMLS and GAMLS) system and not do any marketing for you... but you and Lynn and your family can market it yourselves, print your own color flyers, buy a really nice "post sign" instead of those crap metal signs, host open houses, invite other agents for "caravans", provide lunches and gift drawings, etc. etc.

Anyway, from what I am hearing, 2009 will be a tough year for real estate and we will begin to see the market come back by the end of next year. There is just a huge glut of foreclosures now and until these homes are gone, bought up, etc., our personal home values will continue to be affected.

btw - that stinks that you will be moving... but I hope that it is with an institution that truly appreciates your intelligence and integrity this time.


muddle's picture
Submitted by muddle on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 12:20pm.

What kind of a sacrifice, in terms of percentage, is it taking to sell a home now?

Thanks for the kind wishes. I am hopeful of a position at an academically respectable institution. Eye-wink Several are looking pretty promising, but, unfortunately, each entails a move.

____________________

"Puddleglum" by Weatherwax (one of the Muddlings).

Jeeves to the Rescue


Main Stream's picture
Submitted by Main Stream on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 1:41pm.

Each market area is going to be different regarding home value increase/decrease, so you really need to think locally in this regard. For example, a friend of mine relocated recently to the Midwest and the house sat on the market for 6 months. She initially listed the home for $645K. They paid $600K for the home in 2004 so they weren't really asking for an unrealistic amount for their home, just enough to pay off their mortgage, the real estate commission and maybe have some extra cash to help with their move. After 6 months on the market and few interested buyers, they finally sold the home and closed in October.... final sale price was $525K. That is taking a beating! Some forecasters are predicting that 2009 may be better than 2008, but then there are the doomsayers who say 2009 will be worse. It's hard to predict what will happen so you just need to continue to live your life anyway, fix up the house and put it on the market and hope for the best. It also helps to have good karma, which you already have Smiling

If you want to see what homes are for sale in your area, check out the Zillow website. This will show you the homes in your area that are for sale, the sale price, and also shows you what the current owner paid for the home, which can be an approximate indicator of current market valuation in your area (the previous sale information for specific homes can be found under the "Charts & Data" information). Unfortunately in this economy, market valuation and pricing is being determined by what buyers will pay for a home, NOT what you think it is worth. This is unfortunate for all of us homeowners, especially those that must sell right now or in 2009.

Here's the website link:

ZILLOW


Submitted by jimsells on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 7:44pm.

Right now we have an abundance of housing, no demand, and no liquidity. You might consider finding an agent now and start preparing for next summer. Your agent can help you get you home in tip top shape to sell and watch the market for changes. Be realisitic about selling prices. A low sale price on this end may be made up on the other end. Peachtree City will probably have better sales than the surrounding area. Good Luck

muddle's picture
Submitted by muddle on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 9:36pm.

Thanks.

Yes, I anticipate a tough market. We do plan to contact an agent soon after the new year, and we've been chipping away at making the place as presentable as possible.

I've personally worked on this house for eleven years and it has lots of unusually nice features, but it looks like the same old story: we'll get it just the way we've always wanted it right when we are ready to leave.

We completely renovated/restored a Victorian home years ago and lived in the midst of a construction zone for six years. I pulled it all together at the end so that a realtor who came in said, "This place shines." We wound up selling it FSBO in three weeks.

____________________

"Puddleglum" by Weatherwax (one of the Muddlings).

Jeeves to the Rescue


Submitted by Bonkers on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 5:40am.

With your experience in "shining" houses, you don't need an agent.

Consider their motive for making improvements and the eventual 7%.

If you have time to do it yourself, do it!

I'm not knocking "agents," they are needed in some cases. But if there is no financing, they aren't going to finance it!

Cyclist's picture
Submitted by Cyclist on Sat, 11/29/2008 - 9:10pm.

Rain tomorrow and then clearing.
-------------------------------------------
Caution - The Surgeon General has determined that constant blogging is an addiction that can cause a sedentary life style.


Submitted by Nitpickers on Sat, 11/29/2008 - 5:03pm.

It will be worse, much worse. Gonna be too many beat-up foreclosed houses to dispose of to allow anyone to get much out of theirs.

Plan on keeping it as a tax write-off--a business. Maybe in two-three years it will make you some money.

Start finding a good lease now. Even if you have to move to a room temporarily.

My opinion is that the government and banks will let you buy another wherever you are, and you with a business, for maybe 3-4% down and payments no more than 35% of your salary.

Lease or rent one yourself otherwise. Houses aren't everything all of the time!

I owned three at one time and rented an apartment in 1979-1982!
Companies helped a little with bridge loans, and I rented one.

Don't let it throw you--this is a big boat this time!

borntorun's picture
Submitted by borntorun on Sat, 11/29/2008 - 5:15pm.

I too plan on putting my house up for sale sometime in 2009....I realize I'm probably not going to make a lot of money on the sell but I'm looking to downsize and do hope I can just sell the darn thing! The wife and I are putting a lot of money into remodeling and updating the house tyring to make it competitive but you are right, Nitpickers...lots of foreclosures out there....last I checked there were 54 in PTC alone. That's gotta be a record.


dawn69's picture
Submitted by dawn69 on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 2:05am.

My parents are considering having a raffle on their house. They're setting it up with an agent (my cousin), to sell 1000 tickets for $250 each. If, by chance, more tickets are sold - the amount over $250K would go to charity. It's a 1/1000 chance to win a house for $250. They have an old house (1908) in Hampton. 5 bedrooms, 5 fireplaces (4 of which were coal burning and unusable but look real pretty), 2 acres, 4000 sq. feet, heart of pine flooring, high ceilings, new roof, new plumbing, 2 massive AC units, etc. What a steal for someone to take a $250 chance. Even better, the ghosts don't bother 'em much either.Smiling

In these hard times, many are coming up with more creative ways to sell their house.


Submitted by helpful lawyer on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 8:38am.

OCGA section 16-12-20(4) provides the following definition:

"Lottery" means any scheme or procedure whereby one or more prizes are distributed by chance among persons who have paid or promised consideration for a chance to win such prize, whether such scheme or procedure is called a pool, lottery, raffle, gift, gift enterprise, sale, policy game, or by some other name.

OCGA section 16-12-22(a):

A person commits the offense of commercial gambling when he intentionally does any of the following acts:

(6) Sets up or promotes any lottery, sells or offers to sell, or knowingly possesses for transfer or transfers any card, stub, ticket, check, or other device designed to serve as evidence of participation in any lottery.

OCGA section 16-12-22(b):

A person who commits the offense of commercial gambling shall be guilty of a felony and, upon conviction thereof, shall be punished by imprisonment for not less than one nor more than five years or by a fine not to exceed $20,000 or both.

(It helps to remember Fayette voters like electing judges who are tough on crime.)

See also OCGA section 16-2-20 on aiding and abetting.

Submitted by HankyPanky on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 6:16pm.

It’s lawful for governments to gamble with a lottery, but you can go to prison for it. Our electors should go to jail too for their double standards.

Submitted by Bonkers on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 5:08am.

I don't think you quite get it yet.

The government doesn't allow gambling not controlled by them due to crooks taking people for suckers! At least the government, while tsking us for suckers, spends some of the money for good causes!

You need not tell the "agent" anything. He is probably smart enough to know better already if he is a profesional "agent."

Dreaming of a windfall is like something that is too good to be true--- it always is!

Submitted by HankyPanky on Mon, 12/01/2008 - 12:12pm.

So you subscribe to the theory that the government knows best for everything. A nice socialistic position.

dawn69's picture
Submitted by dawn69 on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 11:19am.

Thanks for the info, I'll pass it along to mom and dad and to their agent. I'm wondering why she didn't know this already.


Robert W. Morgan's picture
Submitted by Robert W. Morgan on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 8:25am.

It might take $ away from the state lottery and that's not allowed.

Nevertheless, a house that unique may sell because it is one of a kind. Others who have tract houses to sell - of which thousands have been built next to each other in almost every county will have a much tougher time for at least the next year.

It is a great time to buy - especially if you are an investor. There's a foreclosure in Rocksrpay that can be bought for $150,000 and rented out for enough to have a positive cash flow of $500 per month. It might be worth $200,000 in 2 or 3 years and if sold then that would be better than any other investment - certainly better than the stock market. Trouble is you usually have to tie up a lot of cash since banks won't loan on investment property. But maybe the bank selling the foreclosed property can see the wisdom of providing a loan to a solvent investor (meaning you have the loan amount and more deposited in their bank). Has to be a local bank, the Wachovia's of the world won't play that game - they just dump it at any cost. In fact if you see Wachovia's name on a foreclosure you should offer even less. Thy are panicky and may take it.


Submitted by Bonkers on Sun, 11/30/2008 - 5:05am.

I regret to say that this isn't going to work!

There are not a thousand people who will contribute $250.00!

It has been tried.

A ticket for a dollar (one) will sell a lot more, but you won't find 250,000 people for that either.

Hope the agent isn't being paid in advance!

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