Iran Halted Bomb Drive in 2003, U.S. Spy Agencies Say (Update2)

By Jeff Bliss and Ken Fireman

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and probably can't produce enough uranium for a bomb until 2010 at the earliest, according to a new report from the U.S. intelligence community.

The Iranians halted the program ``primarily in response to international pressure,'' and this decision ``suggests Iran may be more vulnerable to influence on the issue than we judged previously,'' the intelligence agencies said.

If Iran were to restart its program, it would not have enough material for a bomb until between 2010 and 2015,
according to the National Intelligence Estimate, which is the consensus view of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

``Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005,'' according to the report's key judgments, which the Office of the Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell released to the media today.

The agencies said they lack ``sufficient intelligence to judge confidently'' how long Iran will suspend its nuclear weapons program, but Iran's decisions appear to be ``guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic, and military costs.''

As of the middle of this year, Iran hadn't restarted the program, according to the agencies.

Any thoughts out there?

Yet another call...

Submitted by yardman5508 on Tue, 12/04/2007 - 7:34am.

for a non-aggressive foreign policy. It will be interesting to see how the current administration, with one year to go, twists this information in such a way as to support an unprovoked attack on Iran.

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

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Cyclist: Excellent post!!

Submitted by AF A-10 on Mon, 12/03/2007 - 10:57pm.

We must remember that our primary and most powerful tools with respect to diplomacy are Intelligence and the State Department. It's amazing to me how many potential leaders of this country continue to thump their chests with eagerness to attack Iran, without the full intelligence picture of the region. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

Kevin "Hack" King

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