A Student's Opinion on Global Warming

My hypothesis: Global warming is real; however, so is global cooling. Some areas will heat up dramatically and some will cool down exponentially.

There is a war going on among the scientific community, and the political community, about global warming. Most agree that there is global warming occurring. However, most do not realize that while some areas of the earth will warm exponentially, other areas will cool exponentially.

In fact, most of the global warming debate has been politicized to the point where the voting public do not get all the facts. They've been told that the Arctic icecaps are melting and that the temperatures at the poles are the warmest on record. The increase in temperatures in the area around Alaska, Siberia, Greenland, and the rest of the Arctic Circle seems to coincide with a shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (the PDO shifts every 30-40 years). The most recent shift of the PDO brought warmer currents to the Arctic Circle. Now, I'm speculating here, but, in physics, when an object possessing fast moving electrons rubs against an object with slower moving electrons, the slower moving electrons speed up, leading to a temperature increase, leading to the melting of ice caps. Furthermore, the temperatures near Greenland have fallen by 2.2 degrees Celsius over the past 20 years.

Those scientists that say that there has been no other time in the past where the temperature has not changed as much as the present are misled. The Vostok Climate Records (attached) show that there was a period of time about 138,000 years ago where the temperature was higher than the present. Even 5,000 years ago, the climate records show temperature levels near today's levels.

Since 1978 the planet is warming at .08 degrees Celsius per decade. The Arctic, is warming at a rate of 0.39 per decade. However, the Antarctic is cooling by 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade. The temperature of the continental U.S., with its increasing number of heat islands, is rising at a rate of .07 degrees Celsius per decade. Should the temperature continue to rise at .08 degrees Celsius per decade, the global temperature would increase by .8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. By the year 2000, with all the data climatologists have, the Earth's temperature had increased by .6 degrees Celsius. MIT Climatologist Richard Lindzen believes that global average temperatures in 20 years will in fact be lower than they are now.

*Note the following is an approximation*

For every 8 scientists, 5 believe in global warming while 3 do not.

For every 8 people on the street, 6 believe in global warming, 1 does not, and the last is on the fence.

*End approximations*

One of the main reasons that the ratio of people that believe in global warming to those that do not in the public is higher: the hurricane intensity during the 2005 hurricane season. Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all convinced most of the American public that global warming increased the intensity of hurricanes due to warmer global temperatures, which led to warmer oceanic waters, which led to stronger hurricanes.

My major qualm with global warming is that politicians are taking the idea and running with crazy extrapolations that are improbable. However, by reducing greenhouse emissions and other problems associated with global warming, we may reduce humankind's impact on the earth, although slightly. Many voters believe that the U.S. government should focus more on environmental problems. This will probably affect the 2008 presidential election, with Democrats leading Republicans in wanting to take more action on environmental problems. If the U.S. ratifies the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per year, many countries that haven't would be pressured to sign. Maybe with a new president will come a new aggressive attack on environmental problems in the U.S. and around the world. After the War on Terror Comes the War on Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Very good ishmael

Submitted by Mixer on Sat, 05/12/2007 - 12:09pm.

Very well written and very accurate. Of course, there are many more facts to support your position as well.

Ultimately, with the Earth being 4.8 Billion years old or so, we are simply not able to make accurate predictions of a suitable sample size to extrapolate credible numbers.

I loved you explanation of the transfer of heat energy being described as 'fast moving molecules colliding with slow moving molecules'. Excellent and accurate ishmael- of course you know this causes the slower moving molecules to increase in (speed) kinetic energy at the same rate (less negligible sound energy loss) as the loss of kinetic energy of the fast moving molecules thereby obeying the law of the conservation of energy.

And we all know that the average measure of kinetic energy of substance is commonly called 'Temperature' and the speed of those molecules is measured using a 'Thermometer'. But I digress. I do love Physics I must admit. But be forewarned, you are NOT being politically correct and your philosophy and opinion will not fit on a bumper sticker. (Advantage liberal scaremongers.)

Again, great job

Anyway, I will say this, the Sun IS going to 'burn out' and if Al Gore really wants a scientific doom-and-gloom scenario to focus on, I would suggest he start with our Sun.

By the way, adapt, migrate, or become extinct - I wonder if Al ever took biology?

Anyone seen a spotted owl lately? If so, Whoo?

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ishmael: climate

Submitted by dollaradayandfound on Sat, 05/12/2007 - 11:39am.

All theory based upon current knowledge and guesses.
If there were 100 experts writing this warming thing up seperately, I'm sure they would all vary so much as to not come to any conclusion, when taken as a whole.
It is like the fellow who said over a hundred years ago that we should save a lot of government money by shutting down the patent office, because in his opionion after careful study, that everything worth inventing had already been patented!
"Warming exponentialy," "heating dramatically," one means squared or to a higher power; the other flashy. Just words.
All I know is that the air stinks and makes me sneeze and have to take medicine. Water is getting more scarce and my home gets more filthy from the air than ever. People are smothering in some areas from lack of fresh air.
I'll grant you that we will all be dead before we burn up or smother, but don't we owe the future something?

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