Pandemic tests officials, media, us

The current swine flu outbreak will be another test of how the government, news media and an anxious public behave. The ability of all three to separate the truth from the hype could determine how we perform if and when a devastating pandemic strikes.

I have been fortunate to take part in some of the pandemic planning activities, an exercise in the field of preparing for the unknown. Seriously, I do not envy the federal government’s role in trying to effectively survey the global scene, communicate without causing panic and setting the response wheels in motion as needed.

To put it bluntly, Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cannot win; it’s not possible. Both the news media and the citizenry condemn them for not doing enough or they pummel them doing too much when they believe the response was unwarranted.

The irony with this swine flu outbreak, a bug appearing to be a mixture of swine, avian and human DNA, is that most everyone believed the viral shockwave was going to come from Asia or Eastern Europe, instead of from right across our border with virtually no warning.

While Vice President Biden stuck his foot in his mouth, the health professionals in the federal structure have done a much better job of relaying pertinent information to the public (see: www.pandemicflu.gov).

My answer to people asking whether the government is ready for a major pandemic is, Pray it never happens. As we witnessed with Hurricane Katrina, a large bureaucracy can thwart even the best attempts at effective response.

In a prior state legislative session, the state’s public health official asked our legislators to purchase a stockpile of antiviral drugs in the midst of an avian influenza pandemic threat. (At the time, several Asian countries were reporting human deaths — more than the current swine flu numbers — based upon human-to-human transmission.)

However, the legislators refused to purchase the protective medications (depending upon the drug, they can have shelf lives of up to seven years) for Georgians because the health official could not “guarantee” a pandemic would hit us.

We always have to remember the virus could mutate into a more virulent and unpredictable form, and waiting to prepare until that happens is very poor planning, indeed.

A couple of years ago, I attended a select meeting on avian influenza preparedness at the HHS headquarters. I quietly watched the confident bureaucrats from all government departments and agencies championing their positions on various issues. Without doubt, I was very low on the totem pole, without federal rank, and lacking a Ph.D.

Toward the end of the meeting, I began asking questions related to their plans.

There was a plan for using a specialized surgical mask for commuters using public transportation, a vital service necessary for getting employees to their jobs and keeping the wheels of commerce turning. I questioned whether the plan would work due to the incredible numbers of masks required.

Stern looks came my way. I supplemented the first question by asking, for example, how many people rode the New York subway system per day? An official with the Department of Transportation said the number was somewhere around 3 million.

“Wow,” I said. Next, the obvious question, “Since the masks can only be used one-way, do we have 6 million masks per day for New York, much less, the rest of the country?”

The HHS session leader’s eyebrows lifted, and he pointed to someone on his staff. The staff member pointed out, at the time, those particular masks were back-logged and hospitals were having a difficult time ordering them. The mass transit plan went into the trash can.

Feeling a little vindication from the nasty stares, I proceeded to state, “Your plan relies too much on people just falling into place and doing the right thing.” I told them the plan might have worked in the 1950s when you could count on people to act in a socially unified manner in time of crisis, but many think they are above the law today.

A consultant from Harvard politely told me I was clueless. I countered that enforceable quarantine measures could help contain outbreaks in the very early stages of a pandemic. The others changed the subject.

A short while later, Atlanta resident Andrew Speaker proved my point. If you remember, Mr. Speaker, an attorney, caused quite an international scare when, while diagnosed with what was thought to be an extremely drug-resistant strain of tuberculosis known as XDR-TB, he decided to wed his bride and tour in Europe despite warnings not to travel and to report immediately to European health officials. After serious warnings not to board another international flight, Speaker flew to Montreal and drove through the American border.

Speaker, according to the New York Times, became the first American quarantined by the federal government since 1963. Tests later revealed he had a lesser strain of TB.

I received a phone call asking if I could participate in the next planning session.

The TV networks love to hype things up a notch. The key is do not panic and keep an eye on the CDC website. Get your family to seriously follow good hygiene practices. It’s also good idea to create a family action plan on how you will handle mandatory school closings, if needed, and other kinds of social distancing, like not going to church and other group activities.

[Steve Brown is the former mayor of Peachtree City. He can be reached at stevebrownptc@ureach.com.]