Wednesday, November 13, 2002

Well, the people have spoken, and we now have a government entirely controlled by the Republicans. I predicted that George Bush would be successful manipulating public opinion with his trumped-up Iraqi conflict, I just never realized how successful. Machiavelli's "Prince" could take a few lessons from the verbally challenged Bush, who never fails to make his political opponents underestimate his political acumen.

With the Senate in the hands of the Mississippi car salesman and former CCC member, and the House under the leadership of the Illinois pumpkin in a suit, Bush has free reign now to push his programs through a sheepish Congress, so here are my further predictions:

1. Federal spending: There will be much noise but no movement as usual to decrease federal spending. Actually making cuts would involve political capital, and that is not on the Bush agenda. Look for increases in the defense budget, decreases in anything that smacks of social services and no change in entitlements.

2. The Iraqi war: This is now a non sequitur, having been milked to all the advantage possible. Bush will fume over a resolution, clamor over an inability to verify, and in the end do nothing because there is great danger here of large numbers of American casualties, which would spell trouble for his domestic agenda.

3. Taxes: Hey, spending isn't decreasing and we're decreasing taxes on those most able to pay and corporations, so who will make up the difference? The answer is, nobody will because like Reagan, Bush will run up huge deficits and transfer all those pesky bills to future generations. His ability to blame the Democrats will be somewhat reduced by their complete lack of governmental power, but that won't stop the Texas prince from trying. Remember, he has the bully pulpit and the enormous resources of corporate America.

4. The environment: With the help of his fellow draft-dodger Saxby Chamblis now in the Senate, Bush can push through lots of legislation to allow more irresponsible mining on public lands, irresponsible lumbering on public lands, less stringent control and enforcement of polluting companies and their surrogates, less consumer protection, less of all protections built up over decades due to the practices of rapacious big business, and more "business friendly" laws for our long suffering Microsofts.

5. Labor: This one is a given. No Bush ever liked a labor union unless it was in a communist country giving the leadership there fits. Mr. Bush is now officially the lap dog of corporate America and can really begin his massive attack on any remaining protections for organized labor. Look for this attack on all fronts, whether by presidential decree, legislation or judicial action.

6. Social Security: Not a damn thing will happen here. All those ideas of protecting seniors while allowing younger people to invest part of their Social Security at market rates will turn out to be a chimera. In order to do both, the government would need more money and it will be collecting less. At the same time, doing so would eliminate the government's ability to borrow from itself by stealing the Social Security surplus. There is no "trust fund"; it's cash in, cash out, and while the program is cash-rich, nobody is going to change it. Too bad, really, because this is an idea that would work over the long haul and one the Democrats were never likely to broach.

7. International relations: Our image will continue to slide on the world scale as we appear to be the superpower that only looks inward. This is the most frightful aspect of the Bush presidency and one we would be stuck with regardless of congressional control. Despite his rhetoric while seeking the job, Mr. Bush is not walking humbly on the world stage. To the contrary he hardly seems to notice the other actors. If we were talking strictly of our national security this attitude would be understandable, but Bush seems to do it for other reasons. This is a very dangerous course right now when we could use the rest of the world on our side.

8. The next election: If Al Gore runs he'll lose no matter what happens. If the Democrats can coalesce behind a fresh face who is willing to call a bush a shrub, they might have a shot. No need to worry, this Congress will overstep itself. With a Republican, it's in their nature!

9. The Senate: Bush will sense a mandate and start on his extremist program immediately. It will take a while, but sooner or later he will alienate some of the moderate Northern Republican senators, after which he will find the going a little slow.

Are there signs of hope? Not really at the present time, but history must be played out, and there is no predicting certain events. Madison expressed the need for an insulated Senate, free from the "impulse of sudden and violent passions" in Federalist 62. By a historical fluke, we arrived at a juncture in history where the President could exert the impulse to sudden and violent passion in a cynical ploy to alter an election. Ethically, I find its use very questionable, but in a very practical sense, it did the job for him.

A conquering Roman general would be given a "Triumph" upon his return to Rome. Wearing his vestis triumphalis and a crown of laurel, the general's chariot would be pulled by four horses through Rome while a slave standing behind him held a golden crown over his head, whispering, "Remember: you are only mortal." Nice tradition! Bush could certainly use the whisper in the ear.

Timothy J. Parker

Peachtree City