Wednesday, June 5, 2002
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Wednesday, June 5, 2002 |
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Experts believe the economy is on the rebound Morris News Service That fluttering sound coming from the shopping center is the rustle of wallets being opened again, as Georgia consumers regain the level of confidence they felt prior to the recession. "People are upbeat. They don't seem to be concerned about anything, and they're spending money,'' said Eleanor Coburn, owner of the upscale retailer Chutzpah & Panache in Savannah. Two reports released Friday by the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University show people are buying, both for their personal use and for the factories where they work. The center's quarterly consumer confidence survey topped 100 for the first time since the last three months of 2000. The index peaked at 119 points during January-March of 2000 and steadily declined to 88 by the end of 2001, in the midst of the recession. Nationally, a similar survey by the University of Michigan showed slightly less enthusiasm this month. But the score of 96 is the nation's highest level in six calendar quarters. Also, Kennesaw's monthly purchasing managers index registered a 51, a huge improvement from the 28 reading in November. Generally a reading of 45 or higher indicates growth in the manufacturing sector and readings above 50 point to expansion across the general economy. "This recent reading on consumer sentiment is consistent with the Econometric Center's forecast that economy activity troughed early this year and that the economy began to expand at a modest pace over the past few months," said Roger Tutterow, director of the center. "Even as the recovery evolves, economic growth will likely remain at a lower rate than seen in 1997-99 dues to softness in capital spending." Indeed, consumers surveyed said they still weren't rushing to buy big-ticket items at the same pace as two or three years ago. And the factory purchasing executives aren't reporting vigorous enough activity yet to warrant major capital investments in production expansion. However, another piece of good news from the manufacturing survey is evidence of rising factory hiring. Forty percent of the executives surveyed reported increased employment.
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