Wednesday, December 27, 2000
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Wednesday, December 27, 2000 |
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Here are my predictions for 2001 By DAVE HAMRICK Nobody could have predicted the chain of events that unfolded after the polls closed Nov. 7. And so it is with some trepidation that I contemplate laying down some predictions for 2001 during this lull between Christmas and New Year's. But dangling a brand new year in front of a columnist is like dangling a big fat government contract in front of one of Bill Campbell's friends... I just can't resist. The first question on many people's minds is: When do we get that tax cut Dubya promised to every single American who pays taxes? That's going to depend in part on how difficult the minority party in Congress wants to make it. The president-elect has signaled that, despite the fact he didn't win the popular vote, he is going to try to do what he promised and push through a meaningful, i.e. large, tax cut. It's easy to predict how it will go. The Democratic leadership will protest that Bush's tax cut "gives" too much to the rich and not enough to "working Americans." Bush's people will respond that the cuts are fair because all tax brackets will be reduced by the same percentage, and those who pay the most taxes will get the biggest reduction. That doesn't mean anyone has "given" them anything. It's money that belongs to them in the first place. That's the form the battle will take. Democrats will be able to hold up passage of the cut until Republicans compromise, which probably will mean a smaller tax cut than they want, and a larger percentage cut going to the lower tax brackets. In other words, the inequity that already exists will get worse, and the disincentive to achieve will be reinforced. As to when, it will probably be March or April. Another question: Will Bush be able to "reach across the aisle," as he said, and be effective? I predict he will reach across the aisle and get his hand slapped, and I'm not talking about a high five. If dealing with Democrats in the Texas legislature was like wrestling with a German shepherd, dealing with Tom Daschle and Dick Gephardt will be like wrestling with a mother grizzly that just managed to get free from a trap and thinks you're responsible. Whether Bush is effective will depend, to some degree at least, on his ability to compromise and work with the other side. To a much greater degree, it will depend upon his ability to coerce the other side. It's often said that Reagan had a great statesmanlike ability to bulid coalitions and get things done the Reagan Democrats and all that. But his success was due largely to a lot of behind-the-scenes arm-twisting done by the likes of Newt Gingrich. For instance, in order to get Reagan's tax cuts through Congress, Republican leaders organized a gargantuan nationwide phone campaign in which supporters of Republican congressmen phoned friends in Democratic districts, and the friends phoned and sent letters to their Democratic congressmen. Democrats in conservative districts could not ignore the avalanche of constituent mail, and were forced to vote with Reagan even though they were punished by the party. Diplomacy will help, but it will be much more effective if backed up by an ability and willingness to fight in the trenches. That's true in foreign policy as well, the next big question mark. Will Bush be able to deal with all the hot spots in the world and reinforce our alliances? I think this will be his strongest suit, not because he is experienced, but because he is surrounding himself with experience, and because he, like his predecessor Bill Clinton, will do well in one-on-one meetings with world leaders. He'll have to bite the bullet, excuse the expression, and spend a whole lot of money getting the military back into shape after eight years of neglect. If he does that, and if he listens to his advisers and acts decisively when called upon, he'll do fine in this area. Will Congress swing back to Democratic control in two years? Probably, unless Bush succeeds beyond our wildest dreams in building a concensus out of the division that has developed during the election. Democrats feel the White House was stolen from them, just as Republicans would have felt if it had gone the other way. And now Democrats will be energized. Look for some seriously dirty campaigns, unprecedented spending and some well-thought-out strategy. In fact, work on the strategy began at 9 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 8. Well, those are my predictions on the national political scene. Sorry they're not more positive, but I hope I'm fairly accurate. If I'm not, I'm guessing it's going to be because what actually happens is more negative, not more positive, than what I've predicted. Oh, the economy? That'll be fine, though it will be some time before the stock market sorts out which dot-coms have staying power and which don't. I'd expect a mini-recession early in 2001, followed by a reduction in interest rates, which will get things back on an even keel.
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