Wednesday, November 8, 2000

By DAVE HAMRICK
Editor-at-large

As you read this, you already know the outcome of the 2000 elections.

As I write it, though, I have no clue. Such is the nature of newspaper deadlines.

Over the years, I've made a habit of using this time warp as a sort of political game of chicken. Instead of making my predictions a month ahead of time so you'll have forgotten them by the time the final vote is tallied, I do it in such a way that if I bomb completely, you know it.

This year, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the top spot, but I'll take my best shot at it. A week ago I was ready to predict that George W. Bush would barely take the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College. Now I'm leaning toward a heavier than expected margin for Bush in the popular vote... enough to win the electoral votes he needs.

The electoral votes will be close, though, and a percentage swing in this state or that could throw it the other way.

Some of my conservative friends think all the prognosticators are wrong and it's going to be a solid victory for Bush all the way, maybe even a landslide. I'm willing to admit a slight possibility of that. If the opposite happens and Gore takes it easily, I will be completely surprised.

For County Commission in Fayette, it's VanLandingham.

I like Mrs. Barnes and I think she has run an intelligent race, but it's hard to overcome a Republican majority as strong as the one in Fayette County.

Superior Court clerk Bud Ballard's race is another matter. Ballard is a Democrat, but he has held the office for a billion years or so, and has done a good job and made a lot of friends. As my colleague down the hall pointed out last week, it's not exactly a partisan type job and probably should be decided in a nonpartisan election.

But Ms. Studdard has used a smart strategy in putting "Republican" in a big red banner on all her signs and campaign materials. Will there be enough straight ticket voters to bring about a surprise?

I doubt it.

For school board, Republican Marion Key is the winner. William Bryan assured himself a place on the November ballot by running unopposed as a Democrat, but the downside of that strategy is that now he's got that "D" stuck next to his name in the only county in the known universe to vote down a penny tax for schools.

State Rep. Greg Hecht will keep his seat. Bryan Hilton's main issue has been restoration of more control to local governments and, although I agree with the basic sentiment, it's not that much of a hot button issue with the average voter.

And Hecht has identified himself credibly enough as a tax cutter and a law-and-order type that he might even take Fayette County. If he doesn't, the votes in Clayton, south Fulton and Douglas will carry him through.

The race to be our local congressional representative is the easiest race to call. I'll be surprised if incumbent Mac Collins gets less than 70 percent.

Gail Notti has made no attempt to campaign in Fayette, as far as I can tell. And I read the papers in other counties and don't see much there either. There are a few signs out, and that's about all.

I've interviewed dozens of write-in candidates over the years, and I have to say that Chris Borcik, who is asking for your write-in vote for Collins' seat, impresses me more than most. But writing in a name requires a lot of extra thought on the part of the voter, and you've got to make a big impact to get people to do that.

If he keeps up his grass roots efforts and his word-of-mouth campaign over a few years, who knows... some day, maybe...

Well, there you have it. Now you're either rolling on the floor laughing at how dumb I am, or you're thinking I must be psychic.

In either case, enjoy.

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