By LEE N. HOWELL
Politically Speaking

If the latest public opinion polls are any sign, then the 2000 presidential election may be the closest in history.

And, that is exactly what Democratic Vice President Al Gore and Texas Republican Governor George W. Bush are gearing up for.

The polls say the two men are in a statistical dead heat, though the actual figures give Gore a slight edge — and this is ironic considering that just a few weeks ago Bush had an eight-point lead.

But, contrary to what so many contemporary voters believe, the next president will not be chosen based on his percentage of the popular vote total.

Constitutionally, elections are decided by who can win the most electoral votes. Since each state is allotted one electoral vote for each of its members in the U. S. Congress, that would indicate the big states (with the most electoral votes) would be the battleground.

But, that is not necessarily true.

In the first place, both men have bases on which to build — and those bases account for about 40 percent of the 270 electoral votes they need. (The bases are easy to figure out: Look at the results of the last three presidential election and any state which voted for the same party in each is likely to do the same again.)

The one exception to that rule of thumb is California — which did vote Republican in 1988 but has been pretty solidly Democrat since. Besides, consider the results of the presidential preference primary there this year: Gore easily out-polled Bush in the voting which was open to all and about the best the Republicans can hope for is to force Gore to spend up some of his campaign funds there.

So, Gore starts off with 154 electoral votes and Bush starts off with 132.

Four other states which have not voted Republican for president since 1988 are Connecticut, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Tennessee; since they are leaning heavily toward Gore now, the likelihood is that he would pick up another 45 electoral votes.

The easiest way for Gore to win then would be to pick up the 69 electoral votes in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida — all of which Clinton carried — and one other small state.

But, Gore probably won't carry Florida, where Bush's brother is governor (unless, of course, he picks that state's Sen. Bob Graham as his running mate and makes it competitive), and he may not carry Pennsylvania — particularly if Bush picks the extremely popular Republican Gov. Tom Ridgeway to be his vice president.

Michigan with 18 votes is likely to go for Gore, and Georgia with 13 just might go for their neighbor from the state which borders us.

The only other states with double-digit electoral votes which have flirted with both the Democrats and the Republicans in the last three presidential elections are New Jersey (15), Missouri (11), and Maryland (10).

(Maybe that is a good reason for Gore to consider Bill Bradley as his running mate, or Bush to consider Kit Bond as his.)

Then, there are a whole lot of little states with just a handful of electoral votes each.

Putting the puzzle together to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes is the challenge which awaits both Bush and Gore.

It will not be an easy puzzle to solve.

[Lee N. Howell is an award-winning writer who has been observing and commenting upon politics and society in the Southern Crescent, the state, and nation for more than a quarter of a century.]

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