Curtis Smith, SunTrust Bank's manager of south metro residential construction, was optimistic about the national and local economy when he spoke to members of the Home Builders Association of Midwest Georgia recently.

Smith began his presentation by declaring that “the state of the economy has never been better.”

Noting that the Federal Reserve System has been trying to slow things down to keep the nation's economy at a sustainable level, Smith pointed out that the expansion in the U. S. economy is now nine years old, the longest on record. Listing factors that contributed to this, he said, “GNP growth exceeded 4 percent in 1999 for the third year in a row. There's record low unemployment. The housing and construction industry had its best year in 1999.

“We haven't had inflation, federal and state governments have had budget surpluses, the stock market has had increases of over 20 percent for five years in a row, and consumer confidence is at an all time high,” he added.

Turning to warning signs, he noted that inflation could be starting to build, and there are labor shortages, and oil and gas prices are rising. In addition, the global economy is stronger, which means higher commodity prices here.

“The Federal Reserve is turning aggressive in 2000 in raising rates,” said Smith. “Their goal is to provide a `soft landing' so expansion will continue. Actually, long term rates have increased very little, and over the long haul, I don't think it will get out of hand.”

Smith said the Atlanta economy is even healthier than the nation's.

“We have a diverse economy with a growth rate well above that of the nation. Our per capita income average is increasing, we have strong in-migration, housing is affordable, and Atlanta is a transportation, distribution and cultural center. Also, the technology sector and durable goods are increasing.”

Atlanta's weaknesses were listed as a growth rate that's putting strain on infrastructure, an educational system that needs improvement, suburban sprawl problems, and anti-growth measures that could stifle growth and raise costs.

Smith told the group that Atlanta led the list of top 10 cities in housing permits in 1999 with 47,599.

He said that in the Southern Crescent area, Coweta, Fayette and Henry counties had slight decreases in permits, comparing 1999 to the previous year, but these counties' figures “were still healthy.”

He said that this year, the building business will be good but will be down slightly in the metro Atlanta area.

Speaking specifically of the Southern Crescent, Smith said that new home inventory is in “great shape,” but there is a shortage in lot supply in some areas.

“Fayette County isn't experiencing the lot supply shortage as much as other counties,” he said.

Smith ended his talk by declaring that even if things tighten down, “I would rather be in Atlanta than anywhere else.”

The association's February meeting was at WhiteWater Country Club. Corporate sponsor for the meeting was SunTrust Bank Atlanta.

The Home Builders Association of Midwest Georgia, which serves builders in Fayette, Coweta, Spalding, Heard and Meriwether Counties, currently has around 410 members. For information about the association phone 770-716-7109.