By LEE N. HOWELL
Politically Speaking

Traditionally, the ending of one year and the beginning of another is often considered a good time to make resolutions about how to change one's life.

And, at least one Republican presidential contender, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, appears to be taking this tradition to heart, at least according to recent headlines.

Bush is the national “frontrunner” — at least in terms of money raised and endorsements collected — but he is about to change his strategy in New Hampshire. For, he has learned that voters there are not impressed by “frontrunners.” Indeed, they often seem to chew them up and spit them out for the fun of it.

And, the latest polls of the electorate in this “first in the nation” primary state show that Bush may be the leader everywhere else, but in New Hampshire he is nine points behind Arizona Sen. John McCain.

So, Bush is shifting gears and making a resolution to spend at least 15 days campaigning in New Hampshire before the Feb. 1 Republican Primary.

In fact, joked a Bush campaign spokesperson, he is going to spend so much time in New Hampshire that folks “will think he is the governor there.”

The reason is simple: McCain has been campaigning vigorously in New Hampshire and his strategy of town hall meetings where he talks to voters, answering their questions and interacting with them face-to-face — rather than depending upon television commercials to convey his message — seems to have paid off, at least according to the polls.

Now, McCain does not have the warchest necessary to support a massive media campaign. So, he has had no choice but to conduct a one-on-one effort. But, this is the kind of campaign New Hampshire voters prefer and the type they expect.

Obviously, if you don't come and ask for their votes, you are probably not going to get them. So, Bush is shifting his strategy and going to compete with McCain on the ground, rather than over the airwaves.

Now, based on the historical record, winning the New Hampshire primary is probably not going to matter much . This may come as a shock to many casual observers of politics, for they tend to believe that winning New Hampshire is a necessity for winning the White House. But, the reality is that in years gone by, the winner of the New Hampshire Primary has not won the presidency.

Consider some of the “also rans” who won the New Hampshire Primary: Henry Cabot Lodge, Edmund Muskie, Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas, Pat Buchanan, and Estes Kefauver (twice).

They were good candidates who ran good campaigns and appealed to the voters there; but, for a variety of reasons, they fell by the wayside before the conventions.

So, if the eventual nominee is so little influenced by the New Hampshire Primary, why is so much time and effort put into the campaigns there?

Well, for starters, New Hampshire is the Grim Reaper of the road to the Convention — a place where the field of candidates is reduced (sometimes dramatically). And, second, the winner in New Hampshire sometimes gets a bounce which propels them further along.

Bush — who is the first contender since John Connally, another former Texas governor, to have so much money in the bank he could reject federal funds (and the concurrent spending limits) — wants to make sure that he does not lose whatever momentum is available to the frontrunner by losing the first primary.

And, secondarily, he wants to insure that McCain does not become a giant-killer in New Hampshire and use that “bounce” to propel him to victory elsewhere.

So, for these two obvious reasons (if for no other), Bush has resolved to change his strategy and run a face-to-face campaign on the ground in New Hampshire.

Many people who want to support him there are probably saying: “It's about time.”

[Lee N. Howell is an award-winning writer who has been observing and commenting upon politics and society in the Southern Crescent, the state, and nation for more than a quarter of a century.]

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