By DAVE HAMRICK
Editor-at-large

Over a year ago, I predicted a Bush/Dole GOP presidential ticket for 2000, and in the early going it looks like it's a definite possibility.

Texas Gov. George W. Bush took first place in the Iowa straw poll this past weekend, rich guy Steve Forbes came in second and Elizabeth Dole, queen of the Red Cross, took third.

It's only the beginning, of course, but doing well in the Iowa beauty contest is considered a must if a presidential candidate wants to go on from there.

I don't see much competition for Junior out there, frankly. I think he'll win the nomination, and the presidency too unless he gets sloppy somewhere along the way.

Forbes may end up in second or third place, but the perception is that he's trying to buy his way to the White House, and right or wrong, it's not a picture that Republicans want Democrats to be able to paint for their nominee.

Personally I like Forbes for his sales tax idea, but he needs to flesh out his platform a little more than that. And I'm still not sure if I like the sales tax better than the flat tax. I really would prefer a candidate who will promise to get rid of the present system, but first to conduct an intense national discussion of where to go from there.

Is that what George W. will do?

Uh... er... Well, I really don't have a clue. I wrote about the possibility of a Bush/Dole ticket with a certain relish last year because I see it as a popular ticket that will have a good chance of winning.

But now, faced with the reality that my prediction will come true, I'm not sure exactly what we might be getting. You can be sure I'll find out more as time goes on.

It's the process, of course. Bush has learned from Bill Clinton and others before him that the way to win is to look good, to offer a positive-sounding, warm fuzzy platform that's not too specific, and pick a running mate who can bring in some votes you wouldn't get otherwise.

Oh, and look like a winner. That's why Iowa is so important.

Just from the news coverage, I'm not getting much of an idea of where Junior stands on the issues I think are most important: a balanced budget amendment; term limits; complete annihilation for all time of the IRS; ditto for Social Security; long-term tax reductions that don't get taken back the next year; rebuilding the military; a consistent, moral and practical foreign policy. Things like that.

So I'm not yet jumping for joy at the prospect of another Bush in the White House. I'll try to find out as much as I can and get back to you on that.

Meanwhile, is Dole still the most likely choice for the number two spot?

She's no fool. Her campaign has been just as general as Bush's, so I'm not ready to endorse her yet. And whoever wins the nomination will have a lot to weigh before picking a running mate.

But even if I'm wrong about Bush taking the top spot and Forbes or someone else wins out, Dole has at least a 50-50 chance (better than anyone else by far) of being offered the vice president's spot on the ticket.

She has one thing no other candidate can bring to the table... her gender. She is popular among progressive women, something the GOP ticket desperately needs.

But I haven't done the math as far as regional preferences. If Dole can attract 10 percent more female votes but can't deliver certain key states, she might not make the cut.

At any rate, it looks like the Republican Primary race is gong to be a lot more interesting than the other one, and the publicity that will come from that will help the GOP in the big game come November 2000.

It should be fun.

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