The Fayette Citizen-Opinion Page
Wednesday, October 28, 1998
Making my predictions early this year

By DAVE HAMRICK
Editor-at-large

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Here's a news flash: Election day is next Tuesday, Nov. 3.

I feel a twinge of guilt because we haven't given the election much coverage since the primaries and runoffs. Then again, there hasn't been much to cover, locally.

Candidates have pretty much worked the phones and public events, and generally have made very little news.

It's a pretty ho-hum election this year with only three local races on the ballot. And I fear many voters will be turned off by the negative campaigns in the statewide elections for governor and lieutenant governor.

And one more disincentive for Fayette voters there's no Congressional race this year. Neither Democrat nor Republican has challenged 3rd District Rep. Mac Collins, who is looking decidedly relaxed during this pivotal national election year.

Turnout is likely to be very low.

It shouldn't be. There is much on the ballot that is worthy of your attention, including a spirited group of candidates, any of whom could easily lose the election if supporters decide it's a cake walk.

I've talked to voters who didn't go to the polls because they thought their candidate didn't have a chance, or would win easily, and the race was decided by one or two votes. Don't you just hate when that happens?

There are also a number of issues on the ballot, including some new taxes. There is a constitutional amendment, for instance, that would double the tax you pay for transferring ownership of your house when you sell it, from a dollar per $1,000 to two dollars.

You'll see a tax increase of $100 on the settlement statement for a $100,000 house.

The money would be used to create a fund from which local governments would receive grants for recreation projects, and the fund would also be used to buy, preserve and manage historic areas, water resources and wildlife habitats. If you want those things done, you have to show up and vote for the amendment. If you don't want to pay that tax, you have to show up and vote against it.

Sallie Satterthwaite has studied these amendments and referendums and explains them in today's issue. Watch for that story.

Predictions? I usually wait until election week to make predictions. Our deadline comes before the election, but the paper doesn't come out until after, so my readers get to see how good my predictions are without having a week in between to forget what they were.

But this year I'm just not that confident. It's too hard to assess how voters feel when we've been getting daily feedback through opinion polls that focus on people in general.

We're told everyday, "The American people are sick and tired of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, they don't want the president impeached, and there's likely to be a backlash." Yet, many of the nation's best-known observers of the political scene are predicting that Republicans will gain seats in Congress. The only question is how many.

I'll go out on a limb and state unequivocally that the 3rd District seat is safe. Other than that, I'm just not sure how many people will go to the polls to throw out the rascals who are persecuting their president, or how many will stay home because they're just bored with the whole spectacle.

My gut feeling is that the core of conservative voters who put Republicans in charge of Congress are more likely to vote than those who are answering the polls in support of the president. After all, those who keep repeating the mantra: "It's his private life, not impeachable," obviously don't care enough about what's going on to learn any facts, or even find out what the controversy is about. They probably are too lazy to vote as well.

So I'm guessing that Republicans will pick up about 20 seats in the House, and half a dozen in the Senate. It's not enough to override presidential vetoes, but I think you'll see a much more cooperative President Clinton for about a year.

Next year, he will do as he did last year, a non-election year. He will sign Republican bills. The following year, he will take credit for everything the Republicans did, and launch scathing attacks against the "do nothing Congress."

That's assuming he doesn't get tossed out, of course.

Locally, I think you might see a Democrat on the Board of Education. At least I think those elections will be close. Yes, I know only about 2,000 Fayette voters took Democrat ballots in the primaries and about 10,000 voted Republican, but remember the Democrats didn't have any opposition. Now that it's a Democrat-Republican race, there may be more Democrats than you thought.

And some who cast Republican votes in the primaries may switch over due to a general negative sentiment toward the board. It's tough to call, though, because neither of the Republican candidates is an incumbent.

County Commission races will go to Republicans, but by what margin I couldn't say. Again, it depends on how many people get out and vote.

I'm guessing Bill Bonner will take the 34th District state Senate seat with 60 percent of the vote, give or take a couple of points, and Republicans will take a majority in the House and Senate for the first time in modern history.

Voting in the two top spots will be close. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Republican governor and Democratic lieutenant governor, or vice versa.

Paul Coverdell will make short work of Michael Coles in the U. S. Senate race.

If I'm right in my predictions, I'm sure to remind you in a future column. If I'm wrong, well, the election's a week away and you'll have forgotten what I predicted by then.


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