Friday, April 18, 2003
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Friday, April 18, 2003 |
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Census estimates Coweta growth has eclipsed Fayette By J. FRANK
LYNCH
Fayette County's population growth rate slowed last year to its lowest in years, while Coweta County's numbers surpassed its neighbor to the east for the first time since the 1980s, according to estimates released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau. During the period from July 1, 2001 to July 1, 2002, Fayette County added just 2,033 people, the Census estimated, for a growth rate of 2.1 percent. Fayette's population was estimated at 96,611 on July 1 last year. Coweta County's was 97,771, for a growth rate of 3.7 percent over the previous year. Coweta added 3,699 people during the period, the Census said. Georgia's most populous county, Fulton, registered near zero growth during the period, according to Census estimates, even while residential construction continued at a healthy clip in the south end of the county. The Census said Fulton had just 254 net population gain, to 825,431. Fulton's stagnant growth was mirrored in many of the state's largest urban counties. Both Columbus-Muscogee County and Augusta-Richmond County lost population during the year, while DeKalb and Chatham, like Fulton, had negligible growth. But three Metro Atlanta "exurban" counties, including one Southside county, continued to rank among the top 10 fastest growing counties in the nation. Henry County ranked third in growth nationally, adding 9,280 people for a total of 139,699, or a rate of 7.1 percent. Forsyth County, north of Atlanta, ranked fourth, adding 7,741 people, bringing its population to 116,924, also a rate of 7.1 percent. And Newton County, east of Atlanta on I-20, made the list at No. 7 nationally, growing by 4,451 people to 71,594. Rockwell County in Texas, near Dallas, recorded the fastest growth in the nation, at 7.9 percent. Fayette County's growth was still better than the state as a whole. Georgia grew by about 150,000 people during the period to about 8.5 million, the Census estimated, or a rate of just 1.8 percent. That's significantly less than the record-setting growth the state recorded in the late 1990s, and the first significant slowdown in Georgia growth in more than a decade credited with the state's struggling service economy, hit hard after 9/11 last year. Chris Clark of the Fayette County Development Authority said he wasn't surprised by Fayette's slow-growth figures, citing the significant reduction in new housing starts in Peachtree City as the community nears "build-out", and a county landuse plan that restricts dense housing in unincorporated areas. In fact, Clark said Fayette County's lack of sewer service will continue to be the driving force in controlling the rate of growth for years to come. The county plan allows for a rate of growth of about 3 to 4 percent a year, Clark said, and this year's Census estimate is proof that Fayette's strategy is working. Ironically, though, the population estimate the development authority and other county agencies use for planning purposes is significantly higher than the Census numbers, Clark said. As of Jan. 1 of this year, Fayette's population totaled 102,000, according to Clark's calculations. He said the county uses similar methods as the Census to make the estimate, including housing trends, demographics and economic factors. It also considers the annual population estimates released by the Atlanta Regional Commission, another compilation based on more speculation than hard evidence. The ARC numbers for 2002, released on April 1 this year, showed Fayette with 97,300 people. That estimate reflects a growth rate of 3.3 percent from the previous year, higher than the Census prediction. Clark said Fayette's demographics and a steady adherence to the land use plan in place should mean more controlled, steady growth for years to come. "We're really one of the smallest counties in the state in land area, but because of the leadership we've had and the type of growth we've sought out, we're in good shape for the future," Clark said. More detailed census figures can be found at www.census.gov.
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