By DAVE HAMRICK
dhamrick@thecitizennews.com

Fayette County's population continues to increase at a steady rate of about 4 percent a year, according to the latest estimates.

Unofficial estimates released last week by the Atlanta Regional Commission put Fayette's population at 94,700 as of April, up 3,800 from the 1999 estimate of 90,900, a rise of 4.2 percent.

That's good news for county planners. “It's better to have a steady rate than those big ups and downs,” said Pete Frisina, senior planner in the county Planning Department.

Those big ups and downs occurred in the 1980s, with Fayette at one time during that period listed among the nation's fastest growing counties.

In fact, during the '80s decade, Fayette's population more than doubled, from 29,043 to 62,800 in the 1990 Census, averaging more than 10 percent a year.

The '90s have been much calmer in terms of percentages. “There was a slight dip in the early `90s, then it bounced back up and we've been rolling along at really pretty much the same rate all decade,” said Frisina.

Growth from 62,800 to 94,700 is a little over 50 percent, averaging about 5 percent each year. But while the percentage growth drops, the population growth in terms of numbers has remained about the same throughout the last two decades, averaging about 3,000 to 3,500 each year.

For planning purposes, this year's estimate carries no big surprises, said Frisina. The ARC's Vision 2020 program in 1994 projected population growth through 2020, and the county is on track to reach about 174,000 as predicted, he said.

When the U.S. Bureau of the Census finishes its work on the 2000 census, the figures will be adjusted slightly, but the ARC estimate will probably be fairly close, Frisina predicted. “Population projections and estimates are just that,” he said, “but they're not that far off. Even the Census is not 100 percent accurate.”

The Census did provide some of the data for the ARC estimates. The Bureau of the Census produced adjusted 1990 Census counts for all levels of geography down to the census block level, but decided neither to use them nor to release them to the public.

But those numbers were released under threat of congressional subpoena. ARC used this sample of block data to adjusted 1990 Census figures.

As for the bigger picture, some counties in the Atlanta region are adding people at a faster pace than Fayette's, while others have slowed considerably.

But the entire region's growth from 1999 to 2000 is the second highest in history, at 99,100, bringing the total population to 3.3 million. The region includes Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Fulton, Gwinnett, Henry and Rockdale counties.

“This is the fastest growing area in the nation. Since 1994, the Atlanta region has added more than 500,000 residents,” said Bart Lewis, chief of ARC's Research Division. “This unprecedented period of rapid, steady population growth is a result of a strong regional economy and a high quality of life.”

The largest population gain for the region occurred between April of 1994 and 1995, when the region recorded 105,500 new residents.

Giant Gwinnett County continues to lead the region in population growth, adding 193,000 persons during the '90s.

Because of its small land area and local government policies that discourage high-density development, Fayette will never post the large population figures that counties like Cobb and Gwinnett are seeing, said Frisina. “We're still a little fish in a big pond,” he said.

The new regional estimates will not become official until they are considered and adopted by the ARC Board, scheduled Wednesday, Aug. 23.

ARC produces a variety of statistical estimates, forecasts and reports on the 10-county Atlanta region, in addition to the annual population and housing estimates. Much of this information is available online at www.
atlantaregional.com or by phoning ARC's information center at 404-463-3102.